Table 2: MIGRATE-N results from the simulations with migration (m=0.000025, that is an M=100). Each cell contains 3 values, the first is the 2.5% percentile, the second the mode, and the third the 97.5% percentile of the posterior distribution. The last row indicates whether the true migration rate is within the credibility set, a value of 2 indicates that both migration rates credibility sets include the true value, a value of one 1 include only one, etc.

Parameter

Population  split

tau

1250

2500

5000

10000

40000

Theta(1)

 0.00073 

0.00270 0.00454

0.00053

 0.00243

 0.00427

0.00073 

0.00264

 0.00454

0.00060

 0.00257

 0.00440

0.00060 

0.00250 

0.00434

Theta(2)

0.00080

 0.00277

 0.00460

0.00113

 0.00310

 0.00507

0.00060

 0.00243

 0.00427

 0.00020

 0.00197

 0.00374

 0.00080

 0.00277

 0.00460

M(2,1)

226.00

 647.00

 843.33

60.67

 313.00

 502.00

 35.33

 87.67

 194.67

10.67

62.33

 150.00

40.67

 147.00

 250.67

M(1,2)

180.00

 371.00

 756.00

70.00

 175.00

 375.3

 46.00

 128.33

 258.67

10.00

 89.67

 199.33

0.00

 31.00

 194.00

True M outside

2

0

0

0

0